EMERGENCY: Biden’s Approval of Long-Range Missiles for Ukraine – Could This Ignite WW3?
In a significant policy shift, President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory. This decision, announced on November 17, 2024, has sparked intense debate and concern regarding the potential escalation towards a third world war. Here’s an analysis based on the latest developments and insights from various sources:
The Decision and Its Implications:
The U.S. has been incrementally increasing its support for Ukraine since the onset of the conflict with Russia. The authorization for the use of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) marks a notable escalation. These missiles, capable of reaching up to 300 kilometers, were previously restricted to use only within Ukrainian borders to avoid direct confrontations with Russian forces on Russian soil.
- The Washington Post reported that this authorization was in response to North Korea deploying troops to aid Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. This move was seen as a counter-strategy to prevent a potential Russian and North Korean military advantage in the region.
- The New York Times highlighted the policy change as a response to Russia’s aggressive actions, particularly after its nationwide missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This retaliation could be seen as a direct challenge to Moscow, potentially escalating tensions.
Risks of Escalation:
- Global Tensions: The use of U.S.-made weapons on Russian soil could be perceived by Moscow as an act of aggression, not just by Ukraine, but by the U.S. itself, given that these are American-supplied arms. President Vladimir Putin has previously warned that such actions might lead to nuclear escalation.
- NATO Involvement: If NATO allies follow suit, allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles like the British Storm Shadow or French SCALP-EG, the collective response could be interpreted as NATO directly engaging in the conflict, blurring the lines between support and participation.
- Nuclear Threat: The specter of nuclear warfare looms large. Russian doctrine allows for nuclear response to existential threats, and strikes deep into Russian territory could be viewed in this light.
Perspectives from Analysts:
- Fox News quoted experts suggesting that while this might not directly lead to WW3, it significantly raises the stakes. The strategic use of these missiles could disrupt Russian operations, forcing them into a corner where they might feel compelled to escalate.
- NPR discussed with former military officials who expressed concerns over the escalation ladder, pointing out that each step in military support to Ukraine has historically been met with a Russian counteraction, potentially leading to an uncontrollable spiral.
Counterarguments:
- Some geopolitical analysts argue that while the move is provocative, both the U.S. and Russia understand the catastrophic implications of a direct confrontation.
- The Independent quoted sources saying that the decision might be more about deterrence and showing resolve than an intention to start a broader conflict. They argue that any actions would likely be circumscribed to avoid the worst-case scenarios.
Conclusion:
While Biden’s approval of long-range missile use by Ukraine does not automatically mean World War III is imminent, it undeniably heightens the risk of escalation. The situation requires careful monitoring and diplomatic engagement to prevent misunderstanding or miscalculation leading to a broader conflict.
The international community watches closely, aware that this decision could either be a pivotal moment in deterring further Russian aggression or a dangerous step towards a larger, more devastating war. As history has shown, in the chess game of international relations, one wrong move could indeed have catastrophic consequences.
Sources:
- The Washington Post: “Biden approves Ukraine’s use of long-range U.S. weapons inside Russia, reversing policy”
- The New York Times: “Biden authorizes Ukraine to strike Russia with U.S.-supplied long-range missiles”
- Fox News: “Biden approves Ukraine to use U.S. missiles on Russian targets”
- NPR: “Biden allows Ukraine to strike Russia with U.S. long-range missiles”
- The Independent: “Biden approves Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia for first time”